Tuesday, November 4, 2008

U.S. stocks hit 24-year general election on the largest increase

New York 4, the stock market hit a 24-year U.S. presidential election on the largest gains, all three major indexes rose more than 3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 300 points. In the U.S. presidential election, the performance of listed companies by better than expected, the credit market to further improve the situation, as well as more financial assistance to companies such as the Ministry of Finance to stimulate the news, with U.S. stock futures market drastically.
As of the close (5:00 am Beijing time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 305.45 points to 9625.28 points, or 3.28 percent. Dow 30 component stocks in a total of 28 stocks rose. AT & T Inc. Rose 6.4 percent. Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 39.45 points to 1005.75 points, or 4.08 percent; Nasdaq composite index rose 53.79 points to 1780.12 points, or 3.12 percent.
U.S. presidential election and the stock market
Jefferies & Co., Chief market analyst Art - Hogan (Art Hogan) said, "The market seems to be that Obama will win the election, the latest opinion polls also support this view." U.S. presidential election has become the focus of the market, the voters will be between Senator Obama and McCain cited a leadership over the next four years, President of the United States. One-third of the seats in the Senate race will also be firmly attract people's attention.
ING economist Rob London - Carnell (Rob Carnell), "From now on, the election of senators and presidential elections as interesting. The next president and the Senate will have to face the cold reality of the economy, the economy will be their In formulating our policies need to give priority to the factor. "
He said that "no matter who eventually became President of the Senate or the U.S. deficit will continue to rise, economic growth will be very weak and the inflation rate will drop to zero or even negative." A number of opinion polls have shown Obama leading edge, "the Wall Street Journal" and NBC News conducted a joint test showed McCain leading Obama than 8 percentage points.
News
Cantor Fitzgerald market strategist Marc - Padoa (Marc Pado) said, "to remove uncertainty and pessimism in the market is favorable. I think the general election on the most important thing is whether the Democratic Party obtained a majority in the Senate, which stimulate the economy Measures not only the risk of rejection. "
Hogan pointed out that the "Inter-bank Offered Rate has been falling for 17 consecutive days, the credit market that has thawed." Inter-bank Offered Rate has dropped Tuesday on June 9 the lowest level since.
Tomorrow will be released economic data, including the private sector ADP employment report, the Institute for Supply Management's service sector index, as well as crude oil futures last week's data.
The Commerce Department report on U.S. factory orders in September for the second consecutive month decline.
Aspects of stock
Hewlett-Packard fell 1.9 percent.
Analysts disclosure, Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO) search the subscription business cooperation agreement, which could lead to Microsoft and Yahoo to consider the merger. Google rose 6.4 percent, and Yahoo rose 4.0 percent.
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) rose 20.7 percent, the company's performance far exceeded the expectations of analysts.
MasterCard (MA) rose 11.8 percent, the company's legal costs after the deduction of profits exceeded market expectations.
The external market
Tokyo stock market reopened after the Nikkei 225 index rose 6.3 percent; Tuesday the major European countries in the stock market, the French CAC-40 (FR: 1804546) index rose 4.6 percent to close at 3691.09 points. German DAX 30 index (DX: 1876534) rose 5% to close at 5278.04 points. UK FTSE 100 index (UK: UKX) rose 4.4 percent to close at 4639.50 points. Morgan Stanley European strategist release of "all-round buy signal."
These strategist pointed out that "we have come to this conclusion is based on the individual investor, procurement managers, analysts, as well as the seller have been desperate, like a track mutual fund outflows reached a new record high, the Institute for Supply Management's index of new orders fell below 40 , And the revised analyst forecasts when the performance of listed companies is very pessimistic. Our view is that if these three people are well aware of the bad news, then this may be that stock prices have to digest the bad influence. "
Australian central bank will cut interest rates by 75 basis points.
Foreign exchange and futures markets
Commodity futures markets and sharply higher across the board, after the dollar hit a new low. Dollar exchange rate strengthened against the Japanese yen, the euro exchange rate fell sharply. As of 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday (Beijing time Wednesday 3:30), the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December crude oil futures up period of 6.62 U.S. dollars to close at 70.53 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 10.4 percent. Today's close-set on October 21 since this is attributable to the sharp decline in the dollar and the United States ushered in the presidential election day.
纽约股市4日创出24年来美国大选日最大涨幅,三大指数涨幅全部超过3%,道琼斯指数上涨超过300点。在美国大选日,受上市公司业绩好于预期、信贷市场形势进一步改善以及有更多的金融公司得到财政部援助等消息刺激,美股与期货市场大幅飙升。
  截至收盘(北京时间凌晨5:00),道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了305.45点,至9625.28点,涨幅为3.28%。道指30种成份股中共有28只股票上涨。AT&T Inc.上涨了6.4%。标准普尔500指数上涨了39.45点,至1005.75点,涨幅为4.08%;纳斯达克综合指数上涨了53.79点,至1780.12点,涨幅为3.12%。  
美国大选与股市
  Miller Tabak债券市场策略师托尼-克雷申奇(Tony Crescenzi)表示,“信心是无形的,但我们发现有时信心对于金融市场与经济的正常运转至关重要。奥巴马给予了投资者信心。”  Jefferies & Co. 首席市场分析师阿特-霍根(Art Hogan)表示,“市场似乎已经认定奥巴马将赢得选举,最新的民意测验也支持这一观点。”美国总统大选成为市场焦点,选民将在参议员奥巴马与麦凯恩之间举出一个在未来四年领导美国的总统。对三分之一参议院席位的角逐也将牢牢吸引人们的注意力。
  伦敦ING经济学家罗布-卡内尔(Rob Carnell)表示,“从现在看,参议员的选举与总统选举一样有趣。未来总统与参议员将不得不面对冷酷的经济现实,经济将是他们制定政策时需要优先考虑的因素。”
  他表示,“无论谁最终成为总统或参议员,美国的赤字将会继续上升,经济成长将十分疲弱,通货膨胀率将下降至零甚至是负数。”
  多个民意测验均显示奥巴马处于领先优势,《华尔街日报》与NBC新闻共同进行的一项测验显示奥巴马要比麦凯恩领先8个百分点。
  消息面
  Cantor Fitzgerald市场策略师马克-帕多(Marc Pado)表示,“去除不确定性与悲观情绪对市场是有利的。我认为大选日最重要的是民主党能否在参议院取得多数席位,这样经济刺激措施才没有被否决的风险。”
  霍根指出,“银行同业拆借利率已经连续下滑了17天,说明信贷市场已经解冻。”银行同业拆借利率周二已降至6月9日以来最低水平。
  将于明天发布的经济数据包括ADP私营部门就业报告、供应管理协会服务业指数以及上周的原油期货数据。
  商务部报告九月份美国工厂订单连续第二个月大幅下降。
  个股方面
  惠普下跌了1.9%。
  分析师披露,谷歌(GOOG)与雅虎(YHOO)征订了搜索业务合作协议,这可能会导致雅虎考虑与微软进行合并。谷歌上涨了6.4%,雅虎上涨了4.0%。
  Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)上涨了20.7%,该公司的业绩远远超出了分析师的预期。
  万事达卡 (MA)上涨了11.8%,该公司扣除诉讼费用后的利润也超出了市场预期。
  外围市场
  东京股市重新开市后,日经225指数暴涨6.3%;周二欧洲各主要国家股市中,法国CAC-40 (FR:1804546)指数上涨4.6%,收于3,691.09点。德国DAX 30指数(DX:1876534)上涨了5%,收于5,278.04点。英国富时100指数(UK:UKX)上涨4.4%,收于4,639.50点。
  摩根士丹利欧洲策略师发布“全面买进信号”。
  这些策略师指出,“我们得出这一结论的依据是,个人投资者、采购经理人以及卖方分析师已全面绝望,迹像是共同基金流出量创下新高,供应管理协会新订单指数跌破40,而分析师在修订上市公司业绩预报时十分悲观。我们的观点是如果这三大人群已经了解了坏消息,那么这可能说明股票价格已经消化了这些利空影响。”
  澳大利亚央行将利率下调了75个基点。
  外汇与期货市场
  商品期货市场全线大幅飙升,美元汇率创盘中新低。
  美元对日元汇率走强,但对欧元汇率大幅下滑。截至周二美东时间下午2:30(北京时间周三凌晨3点30分),纽约商业交易所的十二月期原油期货上涨6.62美元,收于70.53美元/桶,涨幅为10.4%。今天的收盘位创下了10月21日以来的新高,这得益于美元汇率大幅下滑和美国迎来总统大选日。

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